The summit in Chisinau reinforces the special status of the outpost of...
On Thursday, 1st June the Summit of the European Political Community
will take place. 47 heads of state and leaders of the EU are invited.
Global issues will be discussed regarding the war in Ukraine, the
energy security of Europe and the diversification of the Russian
energy resources.The route to China bypassing RussiaReuters news
agency notes that Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a peace
agreement in Chisinau.Despite the attempts of Moscow and Tehran, which
have been reported by the Wall Street Journal, to disrupt the
negotiation process, Baku with active participation of Brussels and
Washington is making efforts for the sake of normalizing the relations
with the neighbor and opening regional transportation routes. In
particular, it applies to the “Zangezur corridor” project.With its
opening the EU will gain a direct transport route to China bypassing
Russia - through Turkey, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea and Central Asia.The
energetic base of the EU and MoldovaLately, particularly after the
full-scale Russian invasion into Ukraine, Azerbaijan has become the
main country by means of which the substitution of the Russian
resources on the European market is being carried out.Baku supplies
oil and gas to Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Czechia, Austria, Germany,
Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy. Negotiations are underway
with Moldova, Hungary and Albania.In 2022 the volume of supplies of
Azerbaijani gas into the EU reached 12 billion cubic meters, while by
2027 Baku is planning to have doubled that figure.According to the
United Nations Development program from 28.04.23, for the last 2 years
Moldova (apart from Ukraine) is the country that suffered the most in
the energy crisis. In this regard the president of Moldova, Maia
Sandu, said “Russia wants Moldova to have a pro-Russian government
and it is blackmailing us with energy resources.”Speaking of
cooperation with Azerbaijan, Sandu noted: “Partnership with
Azerbaijan is crucial for Moldova in the context of our will to reach
energetic independence. We hope for support and cooperation with
Azerbaijan.”Many other European leaders and international
organizations have pointed out the special role of Azerbaijan as of a
reliable energy supplier uncontrolled by Russia: The German leader
Olaf Scholz “Azerbaijan is a partner that has a growing importance
for Germany and the EU, and this country can make an important
contribution into the diversification of energy supplies to Germany
and Europe.” The European Commission: “Azerbaijan is the key
partner of the EU in its efforts to renounce the Russian fossil
fuel”. President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev: “President Alyev proved
that his country is a reliable economic partner. This is confirmed by
the fact that Bulgaria has had regular supplies of gas from Azerbaijan
for a year now under the agreement signed 10 years ago, which
Azerbaijan has strictly complied with…” The President of the
council of ministers of Italy Giorgia Meloni : “We are getting
almost 60% of Azerbaijani supplies by TAP through Turkey, Greece and
Albania.” EU Commissioner for energy Kadri Simson: “Europe
survived this winter [2022] with half-full gas storages, more stable
gas prices and a positive prognosis for the next winter. We were able
to accomplish this thanks to our reliable partners, such as
Azerbaijan.” President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda: Azerbaijan is a
key partner for Lithuania in the Caucasus region… Lithuania is in
favor of a more active cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is a reliable partner of the EU in the energy sector.”
Vice-president of the European Committee on Inter-institutional
relations and foresight Maros Sefcovic: “Azerbaijan is a vital
energetic partner for the EU” President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic:
“With regards to the production and th export of gas, Azerbaijan is
a mighty country, which will be exporting over 35 billion cubic meters
of gas in 7-9 years” Thanks to the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
whose construction was supported by the US and Britain, Azerbaijan has
had a route of oil transportation which does not depend on the Kremlin
since 2006. The presence of such an infrastructure is crucial for an
independent energy policy of Baku in the interests of the European
Union.For instance, Kazakhstan was not able to satisfy Germany’s
request to increase the supplies of oil.On May 27 the Deputy Head of
the national operator of Kazakhstan on main oil pipeline
“KazTransOil”, Eric Sagyev, announced that the increase in export
fully depends on the Russian Federation.“Presidentof Azerbaijan
Ilham Alyev was able to grow out of Moscow’s control more
successfully than almost all other leaders of former Soviet
republics”, -Wall Street Journal wrote about a month ago.The
strategic wedge of the EU in Russia-Iran allianceBeing the strategic
partner of the EU Azerbaijan in between two fires, - Russia and Iran,
whose military-political alliance opposes Europe and Ukraine.As early
as in February of 2023 the authoritative edition Forbes reported that
Moscow and Tehran posed the main threat to the supplies of Azerbaijani
gas into Europe.“In 2021-2023 Azerbaijan became one of the main
alternative suppliers of energy resources from Russia into the EU”,
- the Romanian version of the Newsweek said. The outlet reported: in
an effort to ensure a lever of pressure on Baku, Moscow has been
involving Armenian separatists in Karabakh (which even the prime
minister of Armenia has recognized as a sovereign territory of
Azerbaijan).Iranians and Russians regard the separatist enclave in
Karabakh as a “kill switch” of Azerbaijani supplies into the EU,
one of the leading Israeli “think tanks” Begin-Sadat Center noted
on 18.05.23.“Putin is using the Armenians of Karabakh as pawns, like
South Ossetians and Abkhazians in Georgia or Russian communities in
Ukraine…”,- stated the American Wall Street Journal.One of the
largest Ukrainian publications, Focus, noted that “both states
resist the pro-Russian separatism: Ukraine in Donbass and Crimea,
Azerbaijan - in Karabakh. Ukraine is Europe’s bastion on Moscow’s
way of aggressive expansion. Azerbaijan is one of the main suppliers
of energy resources to the EU, compensating for the rejection of the
Russian gas.”Reliable friend of UkraineDespite having hostile
neighbors in the north and south, Azerbaijan is consistently
supporting Ukraine.“Azerbaijan continues to provide humanitarian aid
to the people of Ukraine”, - said foreign minister Ceyhun Bayramov
several weeks ago.In 2022 alone Azerbaijan provided Ukraine with over
200.000 liters of fuel and over 900 tons of medication, medical
equipment and food supplies.On May 16 the vice-speaker of Verkhovna
Rada Elena Kondratyuk thanked the leaders of the South-Caucasus
republic “for their constant support of their sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Ukraine.Last week the Ukrainian president
Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Azerbaijan for “its consistent position
in supporting the sovereignty of our country [Ukraine]”.The leading
power of the CaucasusTaking into account the threatening neighborhood
of Russia and Iran, as well as the activity of separatists in Karabakh
under the cover of the Russian military presence, Azerbaijan is forced
to keep increasing its defense capability. Israel plays a special part
in it, with the consent of the US. The military expenses of Azerbaijan
in 2022 reached almost $3 billion.As a consequence, in “2023
military strength ranking” Azerbaijan took the 57th place among 145
countries. Thus, it is the militarily strongest state in the South
Caucasus. Azerbaijan leads in the region based on other indicators as
well.The population of Azerbaijan is 10,1 million, of Georgia - 3,7
million, Armenia - 2,9 million.GDP of Azerbaijan in 2022 grew to $78,7
billion, while in Georgia and Аrmania this figure amounted to $24,6
and $22,2 billion, respectively.Azerbaijan’s planed revenues in 2023
–$18,1 billion, those of Georgia - $8,4 billion, of Armenia - $6
billion.Azerbaijan is the only country of the South Caucasus included
on the 2022 ranking of the best countries of the world according to US
News & World Report.***The quotations and facts above show that
Azerbaijan is an irreplaceable strategic partner of the EU in the
Caucasus. That is why its participation in the Chisinau summit of the
European political community is especially symbolic.It is significant,
therefore, that a possible Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement in
Chisinau promises the European community new economic and geopolitical
dividends.Igor Chalenko, political scientist, Head of Center for
Analysis and Strategies (Ukraine)